RUSSIA, UCRAINE, BRZEZINSKY AND THE POWER OF EURASIA

By Álvaro Montenegro Pinto (*) La Paz, Bolivia 25 march 2022

Zbigniew Brzezinski was one of the most influential figures in US foreign policy. Born in Poland, Brzezinski was National Security Advisor (1977-81) in the Jimmy Carter administration.

In 1974, shortly before assuming that position, Brzezinski also played an important role in the creation of the "Trilateral Commission": an international non-governmental organization dedicated to facilitating relations between the US, Western Europe and Japan of which David Rockefeller was its first president. But that is another story.

In 1977 Brzezinski published one of his most recognized works: "The World Grand Chessboard: American Supremacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives." Following the “World Island” theory of the British Halford Mackinder –considered the father of modern geopolitics– the book develops a comprehensive and integrated US geo-strategy towards Eurasia.

For Mackinder and Brzezinski, since the continents began to interact politically some 500 years ago, Eurasia was "the center of world power."

That vast region – which includes Europe, Asia and the Middle East – at the time Brzezinski wrote the book, was home to 75% of the population and 60% of the world's GDP, as well as three quarters of the world's known energy resources.

The following famous Mackinder aphorism sums up his thinking: “Whoever controls Eastern Europe controls the Continental Heartland; whoever controls the Continental Heart dominates the World Island; whoever controls the World Island controls the world.”

The control of Eurasia almost automatically supposes the subordination of Africa and both the Americas and Oceania remain as peripheries of the center.

In recent history, it was the Tsarist Empire and then the Soviet Union who managed to control almost all of the "Continental Heart"; meaning Siberia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

However, as Brzezinski points out, the last decade of the 20th century witnessed "a tectonic shift in world affairs". For the first time in history, a non-Eurasian country emerged as the world's leading power.

To maintain US primacy in Eurasia and thus globally, Brzezinski argues that it is imperative that no Eurasian opponent be able to dominate Eurasia and thus challenge the United States. And he writes: “All potential political and/or economic challengers to American primacy are Eurasians. Cumulatively, the power of Eurasia vastly dwarfs that of the United States. Fortunately for the US, Eurasia is too big to be politically one”.

More than 40 years ago, when the book was published, Brzezinski pointed out that it was necessary to prevent Russia from forming an alliance with "the main player in the east" (China or Japan).

He also postulated that, without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire and can only aspire to be an Asian empire. However, if Russia were to gain control of Ukraine, Brzezinski warns: “with its 52 million people and vast resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically gains back the means to become a powerful imperial power, spanning Europe and Asia".

In recent years, Brzezinski's projections have become reality. The progressive rapprochement of Russia and China –particularly through two joint projects: the Silk Road and the Shanghai Economic Organization– represented the emergence of a new Eurasian axis capable of challenging the US primacy in the region.

On the other hand, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict is one more important chapter in the greatest battle for the main geopolitical prize in the world: the Continental Heart and the World Island.

(*) MSc Álvaro Montenegro Pinto, Political Scientist and International Analyst specialized in the Middle East. Author of the book: “A Role Theory Analysis of Turkey - Bolivia Relations” (2021). Contact: alv.montenegro@gmail.